ISM-Twin Cities, Inc.

The Iran war is not just a price issue. Supply disruption – shortage – is a growing threat, and tariffs add to it!

Presentation Overview

•        A year of expected moderation changed overnight at the end of February. All politics and pontificating aside, there are real consequences for purchasers. John Anton, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, will discuss the big themes and the specific issues.

•        Closure of the Straight of Hormuz not only cuts off oil, but also natural gas, sulfur, helium, and about 20% of all aluminum normally consumed in the United States.

•        The impacts are obvious but also second order can be serious.

·         Natural gas and oil hit chemicals. Sulfur hits fertilizer – so food – as well as up to 20% of copper refining. Helium hits microprocessor manufacturing and mig welding.

•        There are nuances. This spike is not (so far) as bad as in 2021-22, but during that time global demand was booming. The ramifications on the macroeconomic outlook will be discussed

·         The impact is less in the US than almost anywhere, because we are energy independent. Asia, Europe, and Africa are under the greatest peril.

·         Every dollar, yen, yuan, rupee, euro, lira that goes to higher priced food and energy, does not go to buying cars, appliances, or vacations.

·         So far supply chains have been able to cope through inventory drawdown. But what happens when inventory runs out?

The big issues will be discussed, but the heart of the presentation is “What does this mean for me as a supply chain/purchasing professional?

Global risk is no longer a background factor. It is shaping how supply chains are built, managed and transformed in real time.

In this member-exclusive quarterly briefing, you will gain a clear, grounded view of the geopolitical and economic forces influencing supply chain risk today and what they signal for the months ahead. Matthew Bey, Senior Global Analyst and Head of Methodology at RANE Network, will walk through RANE’s Q3 global risk outlook, highlighting the most significant developments and emerging scenarios supply chain leaders should be prepared for.

From shifts in global trade and the energy transition to the evolving dynamics of U.S.-China competition, this session connects RANE’s latest analysis directly to your decisions.

This session goes beyond headlines. You will hear how leading organizations are using scenario planning to prepare for uncertainty and where risk is most likely to impact sourcing, operations and long-term strategy. The focus is practical: what you should be watching, what it could mean for your organization and how to respond with greater confidence.

Whether you are managing category risk, advising leadership or shaping enterprise strategy, this briefing will help you connect global events to the decisions in front of you.

Dr. Basu, Chairman & CEO of Sage Policy Group, Inc., will lead the discussion about current economic indicators and provide an insightful forecast that unveils critical supply chain risks.

Topics include:

• Analyzing key factors shaping economic outcomes, including central bank policies, business confidence, and geopolitics.
• Exploring the intricate relationship between business confidence and economic trajectories.
• Gaining unique insights into worker attitudes and their impact on economic trends.
• These data-driven insights are essential for supply chain leaders seeking to steer their organizations strategically. It's also an opportunity to connect with your fellow supply chain community. only.